Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Wins Are Such an Overrated Stat for Pitchers

I was at work earlier today and we started talking about how if Andy Pettitte should be in the Hall of Fame.  Then we got to the question of "Would you rather have Pettitte or Tom Glavine?" I, being a Yankees Fan, said Petitte, but everyone else said Glavine.  They said it was simply because he has more wins.  Then I shook up the whole entire room by stating "wins for a pitcher's individual stat line are the most overrated stat in baseball."

Now wait, because you say this is the most preposterous statement you have ever heard, please just here me out.  

I'm going to start by saying wins are very overrated because a win for a pitcher has so many variables that are out of the pitchers control.  For example, if a team has a workhouse number one pitcher (ex. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners), but a crappy offense or bullpen, then his wins will be drastically less than normal.  So, does that make him a so called below average pitcher? NO, in fact King Felix is in the top three pitchers in all of MLB.  Lets take a look at Hernandez's 2010 season.  This was the year he won his Cy Young Award.  He only had 13 wins! If you were to only look at the win/loss column, you would have said no way that was worth a Cy Young Award. Exactly my point that wins don't mean much! Look further, and you'll notice he led the league in ERA (2.27) and IP (249.2), and that teams were batting an astonishingly low .212 against him.  With that being said, why didn't he have more wins than that with those numbers? It is because of his offense and bullpen.  The Mariners hit an abysmal .236 as a team in 2010. Out of the 17 quality starts (pitching 6 innings or more and 3 or less runs) that he went winless in, the offense averaged 1.41 runs and batted .208 for him with a terrible .149 w/ RISP! That's just the offense...in the 17 quality starts for him, which he didn't win, the bullpen gave up at least one run in 12 of 15 starts and had a 9.29 ERA and 2.194 WHIP! Out of his 35 starts that season, 30 of them where QS; of which he maybe had the best lines besides wins a pitcher has ever had.  During these 30 starts he pitched 229.2 innings pitched, 214 K's and had a 1.57 ERA and .97 WHIP!  So, just based off of his QS, he should have won WAY more than 13 games!

Yes, now I understand this is only one case but there are others out there very similar.  Again, I'm not saying that wins are an overrated stat on a team basis. I understand you need to win games to win divisions, championships blah blah blah. I'm simply stating that judging a starting pitcher off just wins is ridiclous and it is one of the worst stats in all of baseball! If you still disagree with me about wins being overrated, I hope by the evidence I have shown that you at least understand my point. 

Stats are provided by baseball reference. 

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